Friday, April 11, 2008

Friday thoughts

It's been a week, I know. I have been busy with non-uconn work and other things. I am president of the Connecticut Sports Writers' Alliance and we have the yearly Gold Key dinner coming up at the Aqua Turf. For a list of award recipients visit our site www.ctsportswriters.org. If you want to come to the dinner, the prime rib is $75.

Anyhow, even though I wasn't at practice, Thursday was Moe Petrus day. The reason I know? Moe Petrus day was supposed to be Tuesday but he was one of the dozen players who were shuttled off for a drug test per NCAA rules (all athletes are tested at some point).

I do like the way Petrus and Hurd play and the idea behind having those two at guard. Mike Hicks is massive, but he is slow with his footwork and he isn't mobile enough in the pro-style offense the Huskies run. If they ran a power option running game, Hicks would be a great tackle to just get behind. But, asking him to become a pulling guard isn't possible. He isn't that quick.

Petrus fits nicely at guard, and I know Hurd is someone the coaching staff has always liked. He was even impressive as a defensive lineman as a true freshmen. Ryan and Hicks have to be able to to handle the speed rush outside better. Both struggle against speed.

Look forward to practice on Saturday. Blue White game next week!

Some non-UConn football thoughts:

Looks like the UCF player who died was engaging in a rigorous workout. I smell disaster coming. UCF has tired to say he was doing light workouts etc. Now, players are saying he showed signs of distress etc. This smacks of a cover-up even if there isn't one. This is going to get ugly regardless of the culpability of the UCF coach or trainer running the workout.

NBA! It's fantastic!

The NBA this season has for the first time in about 15 years swallowed up college basketball. I get annoyed when I talk to hoops fans who swear by college instead of pro hoops. Let's be clear on this, and I do watch hoops religiously, the NBA at it's best blows the NCAA out of the water. College basketball is so dependent on the NCAA tournament for drama that when you get the worst NCAA tournament in 20 years (typical that the title game was blown by Memphis) it leaves you wanting more.

The NBA's run in the Western Conference has been incredible. 48 or 49 win Golden State, a team almost approaching the fun to watch level of Run TMC (Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond and Chris Mullin) will not make the playoffs. The Nuggets would have fit in in the ABA. Shaq and the Suns are intriguing, Chris Paul is great, the Mavericks are the most dangerous 7 seed I have ever seen and of course, the Spurs will raise their level and win the West.

Combine a legendary playoff push in the west with the resurgent Celts and then Pistons in the East and it is going to be an electric postseason. The NBA playoffs are superior to the NCAA tournament anyway. The playoffs always deliver drama and good games.

On the subject of the NBA: UConn center Hasheem Thabeet's draft stock is about as volatile as Bear Sterns share price. Where does he go? Should he come out? As a militant NBA fan, I don't see anyway he gets in the lottery being so raw. He has lottery potential, but the analysis an NBA GM has to make is how long will it take weighed against the likelihood he never reaches it.

The analysis that you are taking him high as a project because of is potential is lazy. First off, how long will the project take? That is as important as his potential. Is he going to need 6 years? If so, he is radioactive as a draft pick. Two years? Then he is probably between 10-20.

If you are a GM and you project that he needs three years or more to be ready he will drop like a stone. GM's are in the business of keeping their jobs and you can't sell a project to a 25 win team. Not three years. Draft a project and it's the first step towards your eventual firing.

The era of drafting the project for the sake of a project is over. It's not economical. Look at what hapend to Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry and Desagna Diop. None of these guys panned out for their current team. Look at Jermaine O'Neal. Took five years, and he flourished with another team.

Why should an NBA team draft a player if he won't help the team that drafted him? A worse case scenario is that at year three you have to either commit big money or let him go not really knowing what he is. Too much uncertainty there. This runs in cycles in the NBA. The "potential vs. ready now" debate has swung back towards the ready now crowd. Brandon Roy is a perfect example.

Thabeet has a ton of ability, and I love his profile, but I can't see any team 20 or earlier taking a shot at him. If I am the Spurs or Celtics late then you take a flier, but if you need a player? I don't see how you can justify it. He won't get off the bench next year, or maybe two years at the earliest.

But, all it takes is for one GM to fall in love.

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